BAL vs PHI
Final: PHI 4 - 6 BAL
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (3.5pp). Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (2.1pp). Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.9pp).
Batting & Roster — Orioles has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Orioles has the edge in WAR (0.5pp). Orioles has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Orioles has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Orioles ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (3.5pp).
Phillies edge · contribution -3.5pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (2.1pp).
Phillies edge · contribution -2.1pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.9pp).
Phillies edge · contribution -2.9pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Orioles has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Orioles win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Phillies @ Orioles · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative