NYM vs ATL
Final: ATL 2 - 3 NYM
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Mets has the edge in SP FIP (1.1pp). Mets has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp). Mets has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.9pp).
Batting & Roster — Braves has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp). Braves has the edge in WAR (0.4pp).
Situational — Mets has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Braves has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Mets ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Mets has the edge in SP FIP (1.1pp).
Mets edge · contribution +1.1pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Mets has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp).
Mets edge · contribution +0.1pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Mets has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.9pp).
Mets edge · contribution +0.9pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Braves has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp).
Braves edge
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Mets win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Braves @ Mets · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative