LAD vs SEA
Final: SEA 2 - 4 LAD
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Mariners has the edge in SP FIP (2.9pp). Mariners has the edge in SP xFIP (0.2pp). Mariners has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.4pp).
Batting & Roster — Dodgers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.6pp). Dodgers has the edge in WAR (0.9pp). Dodgers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.6pp).
Situational — Dodgers has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Dodgers ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Mariners has the edge in SP FIP (2.9pp).
Mariners edge · contribution -2.9pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Mariners has the edge in SP xFIP (0.2pp).
Mariners edge · contribution -0.2pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Mariners has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.4pp).
Mariners edge · contribution -2.4pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Dodgers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.6pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Dodgers win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Mariners @ Dodgers · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative