PIT vs ARI
Final: ARI 8 - 7 PIT
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (4.7pp). Pirates has the edge in SP xFIP (1.3pp). Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.9pp).
Batting & Roster — Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.7pp). Pirates has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Pirates has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Pirates has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Pirates ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (4.7pp).
Pirates edge · contribution +4.7pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Pirates has the edge in SP xFIP (1.3pp).
Pirates edge · contribution +1.3pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.9pp).
Pirates edge · contribution +3.9pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.7pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Pirates win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Diamondbacks @ Pirates · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative