PIT vs ARI
Final: ARI 8 - 7 PIT
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (4.7pp). Pirates has the edge in SP xFIP (1.3pp). Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.9pp).
Batting & Roster — Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.7pp). Pirates has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Pirates has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Pirates has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Pirates ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
- SP FIP
- 3.96 / 4.35
- SP xFIP
- 4.06 / 4.49
- Bullpen FIP
- 3.96 / 4.35
- Lineup wOBA
- 0.327 / 0.313
- WAR
- 15.23 / 13.57
- Lineup xwOBA
- 0.316 / 0.313
- Barrel%
- 7.9 / 7
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Pirates win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Diamondbacks @ Pirates · final [15%, 85%] clamp