WSN vs ARI
Final: ARI 7 - 10 WSN
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Diamondbacks has the edge in SP FIP (5.4pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Bullpen FIP (4.5pp).
Batting & Roster — Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.1pp). Nationals has the edge in WAR (0.6pp). Nationals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp). Nationals has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Nationals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Nationals ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Diamondbacks has the edge in SP FIP (5.4pp).
Diamondbacks edge · contribution -5.4pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Diamondbacks has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp).
Diamondbacks edge · contribution -0.1pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Diamondbacks has the edge in Bullpen FIP (4.5pp).
Diamondbacks edge · contribution -4.5pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.1pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Nationals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Diamondbacks @ Nationals · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative