BAL vs ATL
Final: ATL 7 - 6 BAL
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Orioles has the edge in SP FIP (0.2pp). Braves has the edge in SP xFIP (0.5pp). Orioles has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.2pp).
Batting & Roster — Braves has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Orioles has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Orioles has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Orioles has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Orioles ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Orioles has the edge in SP FIP (0.2pp).
Orioles edge · contribution +0.2pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Braves has the edge in SP xFIP (0.5pp).
Braves edge · contribution -0.5pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Orioles has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.2pp).
Orioles edge · contribution +0.2pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Braves has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Orioles win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Braves @ Orioles · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative