SEA vs CIN
Final: CIN 5 - 3 SEA
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Mariners has the edge in SP FIP (11.3pp). Mariners has the edge in SP xFIP (2.3pp). Mariners has the edge in Bullpen FIP (9.4pp).
Batting & Roster — Reds has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Mariners has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). Mariners has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Mariners has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Reds has the edge in Park Factor (0.3pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Mariners ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Mariners has the edge in SP FIP (11.3pp).
Mariners edge · contribution +11.3pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Mariners has the edge in SP xFIP (2.3pp).
Mariners edge · contribution +2.3pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Mariners has the edge in Bullpen FIP (9.4pp).
Mariners edge · contribution +9.4pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Reds has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Mariners win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Reds @ Mariners · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative