HOU vs MIA
Final: MIA 3 - 5 HOU
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Marlins has the edge in SP FIP (8.9pp). Marlins has the edge in SP xFIP (1.2pp). Marlins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.4pp).
Batting & Roster — Marlins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). Astros has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Astros has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Astros has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Astros has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Astros ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Marlins has the edge in SP FIP (8.9pp).
Marlins edge · contribution -8.9pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Marlins has the edge in SP xFIP (1.2pp).
Marlins edge · contribution -1.2pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Marlins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.4pp).
Marlins edge · contribution -7.4pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Marlins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Astros win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Marlins @ Astros · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative