NYY vs PIT
Final: PIT 5 - 8 NYY
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Yankees has the edge in SP FIP (3.5pp). Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp). Yankees has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.9pp).
Batting & Roster — Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Yankees has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Yankees has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp). Yankees has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Yankees has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Yankees has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Yankees ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Yankees has the edge in SP FIP (3.5pp).
Yankees edge · contribution +3.5pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp).
Yankees edge · contribution +0.9pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Yankees has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.9pp).
Yankees edge · contribution +2.9pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Yankees win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Pirates @ Yankees · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative