ATH vs WSN

ATH 56%

Final: WSN 5 - 2 ATH

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Nationals has the edge in SP FIP (2.4pp). Nationals has the edge in SP xFIP (0.2pp). Nationals has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2pp).

Batting & Roster — Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.1pp). Nationals has the edge in WAR (0.8pp). Nationals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp).

Situational — Athletics has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Nationals has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).

Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Athletics ahead by 11pp.

7 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP: 5 / 4.8
SP xFIP: 4.59 / 4.51
Bullpen FIP: 5 / 4.8
Lineup wOBA: 0.314 / 0.335
WAR: 10.52 / 20.78
Lineup xwOBA: 0.31 / 0.331
Barrel%: 7.7 / 9.1

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Athletics win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.

Nationals @ Athletics · final [15%, 85%] clamp