HOU vs BAL
Final: BAL 4 - 2 HOU
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Orioles has the edge in SP FIP (7.4pp). Orioles has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp). Orioles has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.2pp).
Batting & Roster — Astros has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). Astros has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Orioles has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Astros has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Astros has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Astros ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Orioles has the edge in SP FIP (7.4pp).
Orioles edge · contribution -7.4pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Orioles has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp).
Orioles edge · contribution -0.8pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Orioles has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.2pp).
Orioles edge · contribution -6.2pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Astros has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Astros win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Orioles @ Astros · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative