TOR vs CHW
Final: CHW 12 - 4 TOR
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Blue Jays has the edge in SP FIP (2.3pp). Blue Jays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp). Blue Jays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.9pp).
Batting & Roster — White Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.9pp). White Sox has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). White Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.6pp). White Sox has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Blue Jays has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Blue Jays ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
- SP FIP
- 3.97 / 4.16
- SP xFIP
- 4.04 / 4.3
- Bullpen FIP
- 3.97 / 4.16
- Lineup wOBA
- 0.3 / 0.318
- WAR
- 12.11 / 15.73
- Lineup xwOBA
- 0.294 / 0.317
- Barrel%
- 5.9 / 8.4
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Blue Jays win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
White Sox @ Blue Jays · final [15%, 85%] clamp