MIA vs CLE
Final: CLE 5 - 2 MIA
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Guardians has the edge in SP FIP (0.6pp). Guardians has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp). Guardians has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.5pp).
Batting & Roster — Marlins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.9pp). Marlins has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Marlins has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Marlins has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Guardians has the edge in Park Factor (0.3pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Marlins ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Guardians has the edge in SP FIP (0.6pp).
Guardians edge · contribution -0.6pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Guardians has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp).
Guardians edge · contribution -0.7pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Guardians has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.5pp).
Guardians edge · contribution -0.5pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Marlins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.9pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Marlins win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Guardians @ Marlins · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative