WSN vs NYY
Final: NYY 5 - 3 WSN
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Yankees has the edge in SP FIP (13.6pp). Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (2.3pp). Yankees has the edge in Bullpen FIP (11.3pp).
Batting & Roster — Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.9pp). Nationals has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Nationals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).
Situational — Nationals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Nationals ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
- SP FIP
- 4.8 / 3.67
- SP xFIP
- 4.51 / 3.75
- Bullpen FIP
- 4.8 / 3.67
- Lineup wOBA
- 0.335 / 0.317
- WAR
- 20.78 / 18.06
- Lineup xwOBA
- 0.331 / 0.321
- Barrel%
- 9.1 / 9.6
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Nationals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Yankees @ Nationals · final [15%, 85%] clamp