TEX vs HOU
Final: HOU 3 - 7 TEX
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Rangers has the edge in SP FIP (6.7pp). Rangers has the edge in SP xFIP (1.3pp). Rangers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.6pp).
Batting & Roster — Astros has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). Astros has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Astros has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).
Situational — Rangers has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Rangers ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Rangers has the edge in SP FIP (6.7pp).
Rangers edge · contribution +6.7pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Rangers has the edge in SP xFIP (1.3pp).
Rangers edge · contribution +1.3pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Rangers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.6pp).
Rangers edge · contribution +5.6pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Astros has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rangers win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Astros @ Rangers · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative