NYM vs KCR
Final: KCR 2 - 6 NYM
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Mets has the edge in SP FIP (8.4pp). Mets has the edge in SP xFIP (1.6pp). Mets has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7pp).
Batting & Roster — Royals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). Royals has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Mets has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Mets has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Royals has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Mets ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
- SP FIP
- 4 / 4.7
- SP xFIP
- 4.03 / 4.55
- Bullpen FIP
- 4 / 4.7
- Lineup wOBA
- 0.306 / 0.31
- WAR
- 9.74 / 12.86
- Lineup xwOBA
- 0.319 / 0.31
- Barrel%
- 8.7 / 7.9
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Mets win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Royals @ Mets · final [15%, 85%] clamp