CIN vs PHI
Final: PHI 4 - 1 CIN
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (10.9pp). Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (3.2pp). Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (9.1pp).
Batting & Roster — Phillies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Phillies has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). Phillies has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp). Reds has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Reds has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Reds has the edge in Park Factor (0.4pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Reds ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (10.9pp).
Phillies edge · contribution -10.9pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (3.2pp).
Phillies edge · contribution -3.2pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (9.1pp).
Phillies edge · contribution -9.1pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Phillies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Reds win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Phillies @ Reds · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative