CIN vs BAL
Final: BAL 2 - 3 CIN
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Orioles has the edge in SP FIP (7.4pp). Orioles has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp). Orioles has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.2pp).
Batting & Roster — Orioles has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp). Orioles has the edge in WAR (0.7pp). Orioles has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).
Situational — Reds has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Reds has the edge in Park Factor (0.4pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Reds ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Orioles has the edge in SP FIP (7.4pp).
Orioles edge · contribution -7.4pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Orioles has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp).
Orioles edge · contribution -1.1pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Orioles has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.2pp).
Orioles edge · contribution -6.2pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Orioles has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Reds win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Orioles @ Reds · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative