ARI vs MIL
Final: MIL 3 - 2 ARI
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Brewers has the edge in SP FIP (9.1pp). Brewers has the edge in SP xFIP (2.5pp). Brewers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.6pp).
Batting & Roster — Brewers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Brewers has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Brewers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Diamondbacks has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Diamondbacks ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Brewers has the edge in SP FIP (9.1pp).
Brewers edge · contribution -9.1pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Brewers has the edge in SP xFIP (2.5pp).
Brewers edge · contribution -2.5pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Brewers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.6pp).
Brewers edge · contribution -7.6pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Brewers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Diamondbacks win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Brewers @ Diamondbacks · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative