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MoneyBallScore

KCR vs PHI

KCR 56%

Final: PHI 6 - 1 KCR

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (11pp). Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (3pp). Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (9.2pp).

Batting & Roster — Royals has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Phillies has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).

Situational — Royals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Royals has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).

Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Royals ahead by 11pp.

7 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP
4.7 / 3.78
SP xFIP
4.55 / 3.55
Bullpen FIP
4.7 / 3.78
Lineup wOBA
0.31 / 0.31
WAR
12.86 / 9.74
Lineup xwOBA
0.31 / 0.319
Barrel%
7.9 / 7.4

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Royals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.

Phillies @ Royals · final [15%, 85%] clamp