CHC vs STL
Final: STL 3 - 0 CHC
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Cardinals has the edge in SP FIP (6.6pp). Cardinals has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.5pp).
Batting & Roster — Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.4pp). Cubs has the edge in WAR (1.3pp).
Situational — Cubs has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Cubs has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Cubs ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Cardinals has the edge in SP FIP (6.6pp).
Cardinals edge · contribution -6.6pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Negligible gap in SP xFIP.
Even
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Cardinals has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.5pp).
Cardinals edge · contribution -5.5pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.4pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Cubs win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Cardinals @ Cubs · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative