BAL vs CHW
BAL 56%
Final: CHW 1 - 6 BAL
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Orioles has the edge in SP FIP (1.1pp). Orioles has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp). Orioles has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.9pp).
Batting & Roster — White Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Orioles has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Orioles has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Orioles ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
- SP FIP
- 4.07 / 4.16
- SP xFIP
- 4.25 / 4.3
- Bullpen FIP
- 4.07 / 4.16
- Lineup wOBA
- 0.316 / 0.318
- WAR
- 15.58 / 15.73
- Lineup xwOBA
- 0.326 / 0.317
- Barrel%
- 8.7 / 8.4
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Orioles win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
White Sox @ Orioles · final [15%, 85%] clamp