STL vs MIA
Final: MIA 5 - 1 STL
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Marlins has the edge in SP FIP (1.8pp). Marlins has the edge in SP xFIP (0.4pp). Marlins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.5pp).
Batting & Roster — Marlins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.7pp). Marlins has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). Cardinals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).
Situational — Cardinals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Marlins has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Cardinals ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Marlins has the edge in SP FIP (1.8pp).
Marlins edge · contribution -1.8pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Marlins has the edge in SP xFIP (0.4pp).
Marlins edge · contribution -0.4pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Marlins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.5pp).
Marlins edge · contribution -1.5pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Marlins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.7pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Cardinals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Marlins @ Cardinals · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative