BAL vs WSN
Final: WSN 4 - 3 BAL
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Orioles has the edge in SP FIP (8.8pp). Orioles has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp). Orioles has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.3pp).
Batting & Roster — Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1pp). Nationals has the edge in WAR (0.4pp). Nationals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Orioles has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Orioles ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
- SP FIP
- 4.07 / 4.8
- SP xFIP
- 4.25 / 4.51
- Bullpen FIP
- 4.07 / 4.8
- Lineup wOBA
- 0.316 / 0.335
- WAR
- 15.58 / 20.78
- Lineup xwOBA
- 0.326 / 0.331
- Barrel%
- 8.7 / 9.1
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Orioles win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Nationals @ Orioles · final [15%, 85%] clamp