STL vs ARI
Final: ARI 4 - 3 STL
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Cardinals has the edge in SP FIP (3pp). Cardinals has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp). Cardinals has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.5pp).
Batting & Roster — Diamondbacks has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Cardinals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).
Situational — Cardinals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Cardinals ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
- SP FIP
- 4.1 / 4.35
- SP xFIP
- 4.25 / 4.49
- Bullpen FIP
- 4.1 / 4.35
- Lineup wOBA
- 0.308 / 0.313
- WAR
- 12.02 / 13.57
- Lineup xwOBA
- 0.323 / 0.313
- Barrel%
- 7.4 / 7
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Cardinals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Diamondbacks @ Cardinals · final [15%, 85%] clamp