PIT vs SEA
Final: SEA 3 - 2 PIT
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Mariners has the edge in SP FIP (2.5pp). Mariners has the edge in SP xFIP (0.6pp). Mariners has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.1pp).
Batting & Roster — Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.2pp). Pirates has the edge in WAR (0.4pp). Mariners has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Pirates has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Mariners has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Pirates ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Mariners has the edge in SP FIP (2.5pp).
Mariners edge · contribution -2.5pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Mariners has the edge in SP xFIP (0.6pp).
Mariners edge · contribution -0.6pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Mariners has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.1pp).
Mariners edge · contribution -2.1pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.2pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Pirates win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Mariners @ Pirates · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative