MIA vs SFG
Final: SFG 3 - 6 MIA
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Marlins has the edge in SP FIP (2.5pp). Marlins has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp). Marlins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.1pp).
Batting & Roster — Marlins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp). Marlins has the edge in WAR (0.4pp). Marlins has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Marlins has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Giants has the edge in Park Factor (0.3pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Marlins ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
- SP FIP
- 3.95 / 4.16
- SP xFIP
- 4.13 / 4.38
- Bullpen FIP
- 3.95 / 4.16
- Lineup wOBA
- 0.322 / 0.311
- WAR
- 15.24 / 10.45
- Lineup xwOBA
- 0.31 / 0.308
- Barrel%
- 6.6 / 7.2
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Marlins win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Giants @ Marlins · final [15%, 85%] clamp