WSN vs KCR
Final: KCR 4 - 6 WSN
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Royals has the edge in SP FIP (1.2pp). Nationals has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp). Royals has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1pp).
Batting & Roster — Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.3pp). Nationals has the edge in WAR (0.6pp). Nationals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp).
Situational — Nationals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Nationals ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
- SP FIP
- 4.8 / 4.7
- SP xFIP
- 4.51 / 4.55
- Bullpen FIP
- 4.8 / 4.7
- Lineup wOBA
- 0.335 / 0.31
- WAR
- 20.78 / 12.86
- Lineup xwOBA
- 0.331 / 0.31
- Barrel%
- 9.1 / 7.9
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Nationals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Royals @ Nationals · final [15%, 85%] clamp