CIN vs NYM
Final: NYM 3 - 5 CIN
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Mets has the edge in SP FIP (8.3pp). Mets has the edge in SP xFIP (1.8pp). Mets has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.9pp).
Batting & Roster — Reds has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). Mets has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). Mets has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Reds has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Reds has the edge in Park Factor (0.4pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Reds ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Mets has the edge in SP FIP (8.3pp).
Mets edge · contribution -8.3pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Mets has the edge in SP xFIP (1.8pp).
Mets edge · contribution -1.8pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Mets has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.9pp).
Mets edge · contribution -6.9pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Reds has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Reds win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Mets @ Reds · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative