PHI vs MIA
Final: MIA 0 - 7 PHI
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (5.5pp).
Batting & Roster — Phillies has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).
Situational — Phillies has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Phillies has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 3 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Phillies ahead by 11pp.
3 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (5.5pp).
Phillies edge · contribution +5.5pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Phillies has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).
Phillies edge · contribution +0.3pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Negligible gap in Barrel%.
Even
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Phillies win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Marlins @ Phillies · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative