본문 바로가기MLB AI 적중 기록
MoneyBall Score AI가 MLB 경기에서 얼마나 정확한지 솔직하게 공개합니다. 시즌 내 모든 검증 완료 경기 기준.
신뢰도 vs 실제 적중률
AI가 60% 확신으로 예측하면 실제로 60%를 맞히는가? 대각선에 가까울수록 잘 보정된 AI입니다.
30일 rolling 적중률 추세
최근 90일, window=30일각 날짜의 직전 30일 평균 적중률입니다. 한두 경기 운에 흔들리지 않고 모델의 실제 추세를 보여줍니다. 50% 기준선보다 위에 있으면 모델이 동전 던지기보다 낫다는 뜻입니다.
확률 bucket 보정
AI가 예측한 승리 확률 구간별로 실제 적중률이 얼마나 일치하는지 보여줍니다.
Brier Score 추이
주차별 Brier score 변화입니다. 값이 낮을수록 AI 예측이 정확합니다.
요일별 적중률
요일별 적중률 매트릭스입니다. N<3 인 요일은 소표본으로 회색 처리됩니다.
| scoring_rule | 월 | 화 | 수 | 목 | 금 | 토 | 일 |
|---|
| 전체 | 55% 66/120 | 54% 89/164 | 56% 80/144 | 54% 55/101 | 51% 77/151 | 55% 88/159 | 54% 83/154 |
색상 — 녹색 ≥60% / 노랑 ≥50% / 빨강 <50% / 회색 N<3 소표본. v1.6 anomaly + Sunday cap 효과 시각화.
cohort × 주차 비교
최근 4주scoring_rule (모델 가중치 버전) × 주차 적중률 매트릭스입니다. 요일별 매트릭스의 시간 축 자매 view입니다.
| scoring_rule | 8/17 주 | 8/24 주 | 8/31 주 | 9/14 주 |
|---|
| 전체 | 71% 67/95 | 50% 18/36 | 55% 17/31 | 70% 21/30 |
색상 — brand-700 ≥70% / brand-500 ≥60% / brand-300 ≥50% / brand-100 <50% / 회색 N<3 소표본. 최근 4주 cohort 시계열 비교.
팀별 예측 성과
경기 관련 팀 기준. 홈/원정 구분 없이 집계.
| 팀 | 예측 | 적중 | 적중률 |
|---|
| Giants | 65 | 43 | 66.2% |
| Padres | 67 | 44 | 65.7% |
| Royals | 68 | 44 | 64.7% |
| Marlins | 64 | 41 | 64.1% |
| Rockies | 66 | 41 | 62.1% |
| Brewers | 68 | 40 | 58.8% |
| Mariners | 66 | 38 | 57.6% |
| Phillies |
| Twins | 42.2% | 53.1% | -10.9%p | 54.7% |
| Athletics | 38.8% | 28.4% | +10.4%p | 50.7% |
| Reds | 36.2% | 46.4% | -10.1%p | 52.2% |
| Guardians | 56.5% | 46.8% | +9.7%p | 54.8% |
| Pirates | 41.8% | 50.7% | -9.0%p | 55.2% |
| Orioles | 42.9% | 50.8% | -7.9%p | 50.8% |
| Blue Jays | 39.1% | 46.9% | -7.8%p | 45.3% |
| Braves | 57.6% | 50.0% | +7.6%p | 56.1% |
| Red Sox | 61.2% | 68.7% | -7.5%p | 50.7% |
| Giants | 47.7% | 41.5% | +6.2%p | 66.2% |
| White Sox | 56.9% | 50.8% | +6.2%p | 50.8% |
| Rangers | 58.2% | 52.2% | +6.0%p | 55.2% |
| Padres | 50.7% | 55.2% | -4.5%p | 65.7% |
| Rays | 54.4% | 58.8% | -4.4%p | 51.5% |
| Phillies | 61.5% | 58.5% | +3.1%p | 56.9% |
| Nationals | 46.3% | 43.3% | +3.0%p | 55.2% |
| Diamondbacks | 50.7% | 53.7% | -3.0%p | 52.2% |
| Royals | 44.1% | 47.1% | -2.9%p | 64.7% |
| Marlins | 48.4% | 50.0% | -1.6%p | 64.1% |
| Rockies | 37.9% | 39.4% | -1.5%p | 62.1% |
| Mets | 43.3% | 43.3% | +0.0%p | 49.3% |
| Brewers | 60.3% | 60.3% | +0.0%p | 58.8% |
| Dodgers | 60.3% | 60.3% | +0.0%p | 55.9% |
| Tigers | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0%p | 45.5% |
편향 갭 = 예측 승률 − 실제 승률. +는 과잉예측(더 자주 이긴다고 예측), −는 과소예측. n≥5 팀만 표시. 실제 승률 = 시즌 전체 완료 경기 기준.
vs Twins
2/3
Red Sox51%
vs Rays4/4
vs Yankees4/4
vs Giants3/3
vs Marlins2/2
vs Orioles2/3
vs Rockies2/3
vs Diamondbacks2/3
vs Blue Jays5/10
vs White Sox3/6
vs Rangers1/2
vs Mariners2/5
vs Nationals1/3
vs Pirates1/3
vs Athletics2/7
vs Angels0/3
vs Mets0/3
vs Dodgers0/3
Yankees46%
vs Red Sox4/4
vs Orioles3/3
vs Pirates2/3
vs Braves2/3
vs Mariners2/3
vs White Sox4/7
vs Rays2/4
vs Angels1/2
vs Blue Jays3/6
vs Reds1/3
vs Phillies1/3
vs Twins1/3
vs Dodgers1/3
vs Cubs1/3
vs Cardinals1/3
vs Tigers1/6
vs Nationals0/3
vs Diamondbacks0/1
vs Astros0/2
Blue Jays45%
vs Guardians1/1
vs Mariners2/3
vs Padres2/3
vs Cubs2/3
vs Mets2/3
vs Cardinals2/3
vs Red Sox5/10
vs Yankees3/6
vs Royals1/2
vs Giants1/3
vs Astros2/6
vs White Sox1/3
vs Nationals1/3
vs Phillies1/3
vs Rays2/7
vs Rangers1/5
Guardians55%
vs Rays3/3
vs Rockies3/3
vs Blue Jays1/1
vs Angels2/2
vs Brewers2/3
vs Astros2/3
vs Mariners2/3
vs Tigers2/3
vs Giants2/3
vs White Sox6/10
vs Twins4/7
vs Pirates1/3
vs Rangers1/3
vs Reds1/3
vs Padres1/3
vs Diamondbacks1/3
vs Marlins0/3
vs Mets0/3
Tigers45%
vs Twins2/2
vs Dodgers1/1
vs Pirates2/3
vs Guardians2/3
vs Rays2/3
vs White Sox4/7
vs Athletics3/6
vs Astros3/7
vs Royals3/7
vs Rangers1/3
vs Phillies1/3
vs Angels1/3
vs Mariners1/3
vs Giants1/3
vs Cubs1/3
vs Orioles1/3
vs Yankees1/6
Twins55%
vs Tigers2/2
vs Padres3/3
vs Cubs2/3
vs Rockies2/3
vs Royals4/6
vs Mariners2/3
vs Phillies2/3
vs Brewers2/3
vs Orioles2/3
vs Angels3/5
vs Athletics3/5
vs Guardians4/7
vs Diamondbacks1/3
vs Yankees1/3
vs Astros1/3
vs Braves1/3
vs Rangers0/3
vs Dodgers0/3
Astros49%
vs Marlins3/3
vs Braves1/1
vs Rangers5/6
vs Guardians2/3
vs Rays2/3
vs Nationals2/3
vs Padres2/3
vs Mariners2/3
vs Royals1/2
vs Tigers3/7
vs White Sox2/5
vs Blue Jays2/6
vs Angels2/6
vs Twins1/3
vs Giants1/3
vs Athletics1/3
vs Orioles0/3
vs Yankees0/2
Angels55%
vs Mariners3/3
vs Guardians2/2
vs Diamondbacks2/3
vs Orioles4/6
vs Giants2/3
vs Cardinals2/3
vs Marlins2/3
vs Twins3/5
vs Rangers6/10
vs Athletics4/7
vs Yankees1/2
vs Tigers1/3
vs Astros2/6
vs Brewers1/3
vs Royals1/3
vs Red Sox0/3
Athletics51%
vs White Sox3/3
vs Reds3/3
vs Royals4/4
vs Giants2/3
vs Diamondbacks2/3
vs Twins3/5
vs Rangers3/5
vs Angels4/7
vs Tigers3/6
vs Pirates1/3
vs Nationals1/3
vs Dodgers1/3
vs Astros1/3
vs Red Sox2/7
vs Rays1/4
vs Marlins0/3
vs Mariners0/2
Mariners58%
vs Angels3/3
vs Marlins3/3
vs Rangers3/4
vs Orioles2/3
vs Blue Jays2/3
vs Giants2/3
vs Pirates2/3
vs Dodgers2/3
vs Guardians2/3
vs Twins2/3
vs Astros2/3
vs Yankees2/3
vs Brewers2/3
vs Cubs2/3
vs Rockies1/2
vs Red Sox2/5
vs Rays2/6
vs Tigers1/3
vs Reds1/3
vs Athletics0/2
vs Phillies0/2
Rangers55%
vs Astros5/6
vs Mariners3/4
vs Braves2/3
vs Padres2/3
vs Marlins2/3
vs Giants2/3
vs Rays2/3
vs Orioles2/3
vs Nationals2/3
vs Angels6/10
vs Athletics3/5
vs Red Sox1/2
vs White Sox2/5
vs Tigers1/3
vs Guardians1/3
vs Blue Jays1/5
vs Twins0/3
Braves56%
vs Marlins3/3
vs Astros1/1
vs Padres6/7
vs Nationals4/5
vs Rangers2/3
vs Brewers4/6
vs Yankees2/3
vs Mets6/10
vs Cardinals3/6
vs Giants2/6
vs Orioles1/3
vs Pirates1/3
vs Diamondbacks1/3
vs Twins1/3
vs White Sox0/1
vs Cubs0/1
vs Dodgers0/2
Marlins64%
vs Brewers3/3
vs Astros3/3
vs Giants3/3
vs Braves3/3
vs Mariners3/3
vs Red Sox2/2
vs Phillies8/9
vs Nationals3/4
vs Rangers2/3
vs Reds2/3
vs Angels2/3
vs Pirates2/3
vs Rockies2/4
vs Cardinals1/3
vs Padres1/4
vs Mets1/4
vs Athletics0/3
vs Guardians0/3
vs Royals0/1
Mets49%
vs Nationals3/3
vs Orioles1/1
vs Reds2/3
vs Blue Jays2/3
vs Royals2/3
vs Padres2/3
vs White Sox2/3
vs Braves6/10
vs Brewers3/5
vs Phillies6/11
vs Rays1/2
vs Dodgers1/3
vs Pirates1/3
vs Marlins1/4
vs Red Sox0/3
vs Cubs0/4
vs Guardians0/3
Phillies57%
vs Diamondbacks2/2
vs Marlins8/9
vs Cardinals5/6
vs Royals2/3
vs Twins2/3
vs Mets6/11
vs Nationals4/8
vs Pirates2/4
vs Orioles1/2
vs Tigers1/3
vs Yankees1/3
vs Reds1/3
vs Dodgers1/3
vs Blue Jays1/3
vs Mariners0/2
Cubs46%
vs Padres3/3
vs Dodgers3/3
vs Rockies2/3
vs Twins2/3
vs Blue Jays2/3
vs Mariners2/3
vs Diamondbacks2/3
vs Cardinals4/10
vs Brewers2/5
vs Reds2/6
vs Orioles1/3
vs Tigers1/3
vs Pirates1/3
vs Yankees1/3
vs Royals1/3
vs Nationals1/3
vs White Sox1/3
vs Mets0/4
vs Braves0/1
Reds52%
vs Dodgers1/1
vs Athletics3/3
vs Nationals3/3
vs Giants2/2
vs Mets2/3
vs Marlins2/3
vs Diamondbacks2/3
vs Pirates4/7
vs Cardinals4/8
vs Padres1/2
vs Brewers3/7
vs Cubs2/6
vs Rockies1/3
vs Yankees1/3
vs Orioles1/3
vs Phillies1/3
vs Mariners1/3
vs Guardians1/3
vs White Sox1/3
Brewers59%
vs Marlins3/3
vs Padres3/3
vs Orioles1/1
vs Pirates6/8
vs Guardians2/3
vs Braves4/6
vs Rockies2/3
vs Giants2/3
vs Twins2/3
vs Mariners2/3
vs Mets3/5
vs Dodgers2/4
vs Reds3/7
vs Cubs2/5
vs Diamondbacks1/3
vs Angels1/3
vs Cardinals1/5
Pirates55%
vs Royals3/3
vs Giants1/1
vs Dodgers3/3
vs Brewers6/8
vs Rockies2/3
vs Mariners2/3
vs Yankees2/3
vs Tigers2/3
vs Marlins2/3
vs Reds4/7
vs Phillies2/4
vs Athletics1/3
vs Guardians1/3
vs Nationals1/3
vs Braves1/3
vs Cubs1/3
vs Diamondbacks1/3
vs Red Sox1/3
vs Mets1/3
vs Padres0/2
Cardinals49%
vs Phillies5/6
vs Padres2/3
vs Royals2/3
vs Angels2/3
vs Blue Jays2/3
vs Rockies2/3
vs Braves3/6
vs Reds4/8
vs Dodgers1/2
vs Diamondbacks3/7
vs Cubs4/10
vs Marlins1/3
vs Yankees1/3
vs Brewers1/5
vs Nationals0/1
vs Orioles0/2
Rockies62%
vs Padres3/3
vs Royals3/3
vs Guardians3/3
vs Dodgers5/6
vs Cubs2/3
vs Pirates2/3
vs Red Sox2/3
vs Brewers2/3
vs Twins2/3
vs Cardinals2/3
vs Giants6/10
vs Marlins2/4
vs Nationals3/6
vs Mariners1/2
vs Orioles1/2
vs Reds1/3
vs Diamondbacks1/3
vs Rays0/3
Dodgers56%
vs Rays3/3
vs Cubs3/3
vs Royals3/3
vs Reds1/1
vs Nationals1/1
vs Giants2/2
vs Pirates3/3
vs Tigers1/1
vs Rockies5/6
vs Mariners2/3
vs Padres4/7
vs Brewers2/4
vs Cardinals1/2
vs Diamondbacks2/6
vs Orioles1/3
vs Mets1/3
vs Athletics1/3
vs Yankees1/3
vs Phillies1/3
vs Twins0/3
vs Red Sox0/3
vs Braves0/2
55%
| 3 | 타선 화력lineup_woba | 966 (480/486) | |
| 4 | 선발 잠재력sp_xfip | 988 (510/478) | |
| 5 | 최근 폼recent_form | 90 (38/52) | |
| 6 | 선발 투수력sp_fip | 989 (507/482) | |
| 7 | 불펜 안정성bullpen_fip | 988 (506/482) | |
| 8 | 타선 xwOBAlineup_xwoba | 935 (477/458) | |
| 10 | Barrel %lineup_barrel_pct | 971 (498/473) | |
∣ 기준선 = 전체 적중률 54% (n=993) ∣ 홈/원정 = 해당 팩터가 홈/원정팀 유리로 분류된 경기 수